The 2019 Reality Check: Why Your Home Should Be Worth Less Today

By Keith Robert Gordon

Let’s set the stage. The year was 2022. It was the absolute top of the market, but the economy was still in flux. We were clawing our way out of COVID, wage inflation was rampant because nobody wanted to work, and the supply chain was broken. 

Here we are in 2026, and honestly? We still haven’t fixed the supply chain. We still have that same inflation—if not worse. 

But something incredible happened between 2019 and 2022. Real estate prices in Florida went up 65%. 

Now, that increase didn't just fall out of the sky. We didn't all wake up one morning and decide, "Hey, houses are too cheap, let's pay more." That’s not how humans work. 

What happened was a perfect storm—and I’m not talking about Hurricane Helene or Milton. I’m talking about the end of a pandemic colliding with the cost of money being basically free. 

The "Free Money" Trap

Interest rates at 2.8% or 3% are, in retrospect, free money. We will never see a mortgage that cheap again in our lifetime. 

So, naturally, we had a run on real estate. Just like we’ve seen runs on potatoes, or runs on gold, or even runs on feathers in this country’s history. People from New York and New Jersey did the math: “I can escape these taxes, move to Florida, buy a second or third home, and borrow the money for free.”

That frenzy drove values up 65%. 

But here is the cold, hard truth that sellers are ignoring today: We don't have 3% money anymore.

The 130% Rule

We have 6.2% money. But that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Look at the other costs of ownership over the last five years: 

• Real Estate Taxes: Up nearly 60%. 

• Homeowners Insurance: Up over 100%. 

If the cost of simply owning and holding a home has gone up 130% since 2022, why on earth would real estate be valued higher than it was in 2019? 

Mathematically, it shouldn't be. 

Sellers are sitting there calculating their equity. They think, "Well, we went up 65%, and maybe the market corrected 20% over the last two years, so I’m still up 45%."

And yet, they sit on the market. Silence. No offers. 

Why? Because that 45% gain is imaginary to a buyer who is suffocating under 6% rates and doubled insurance premiums. 

The "One Buyer" Market

I have been a broker for 40 years. I have seen every kind of market you can imagine. 

Between 2012 and 2019—what I would call a "normal" market—if you priced a home at true value, you would get anywhere between 3 and 10 offers. You had a line out the door. 

Today? I have never seen a market like this. Even when you are priced at value, you are lucky to find one buyer. 

People ask me, "Keith, where are the buyers?"

I’ll tell you where they are. They are too poor. They cannot afford the trifecta of 6.2% rates, skyrocketing taxes, and insurance premiums that look like mortgage payments. The economics just don't work for them. 

Meet the Moment

If you are serious about selling your home in 2026, you have to stop looking at 2022 prices. You have to meet the buyers where they actually are, not where you wish they were. You are not in a seller's market. You are in a very different, very difficult buyer's market. 

That isn't difficult math; it's just reality. 

If you want to understand how I navigate this storm, read my book, The Fierce Guardian coming out soon. It breaks down my philosophy on list prices, my negotiating strategies, and how to actually get a home sold when the rest of the market is paralyzed by the past.